The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that global air travel demand fell 0.5% in September 2026 compared with the same month of 2025, weighed down by an 8% drop in demand in the Middle East and a 1.6% decline in North America. Excluding the Middle East, global demand grew 0.3%.
In a report, IATA said global capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), fell 0.2% year on year, while the load factor stood at 83.2%, down 0.3 percentage points, according to a post on IATA's website.
Air travel demand is measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), an indicator that reflects both passenger volumes and the distances flown, not just the number of travelers.
International demand up 0.4%, domestic down 2.2%
IATA data showed international demand grew 0.4% in September 2026 compared with the same period last year, while capacity rose 0.5% and the load factor slipped 0.1 percentage points to 83.6%.
Excluding the Middle East, international demand rose 1.7%, reflecting the impact of the region's travel slowdown on global results. Domestic demand, by contrast, fell 2.2% year on year, with capacity down 1.3% and the load factor down 0.7 percentage points to 82.5%.
Middle Eastern airlines saw total air travel demand fall 8% in September 2026 compared with the same month of 2025, while capacity fell 3.8%. The region's load factor was 78.2%, down 3.6 percentage points, the largest decline among the six regions covered in the report.
On international routes alone, demand for Middle Eastern carriers fell 7.5% against a 3.3% drop in capacity, with the load factor at 78.3%, down 3.6 percentage points.
The data also showed that traffic on Middle East–Asia routes fell 8.8% in September, compared with a 7.9% decline in August 2026. Traffic between the Middle East and North America fell 3%, a smaller drop than in the previous month.
Airline performance in international markets
International results varied across regions, with airlines in Latin America and Africa posting the strongest growth, while demand continued to decline in the Middle East.
European airlines saw international demand grow 1.8%, with capacity up 1.2%. Transatlantic routes improved, with demand down 0.6% compared with a 2.5% drop in August.
In Asia-Pacific, international demand rose 0.7%, although traffic on intra-Asia routes continued to fall, down 0.9%.
North American airlines' international demand was flat compared with September 2025, while capacity fell 1.9%, lifting the load factor by 1.6 percentage points.
India and the US lead the decline in domestic demand
IATA data showed continued divergence among domestic markets, with India recording the largest decline of the six markets in the report. Indian domestic demand fell 8.3% in September 2026, the market's biggest monthly drop since the start of the year, while capacity fell 7.9%.
In the United States, domestic demand fell 2.7%, with capacity down 1%. IATA noted that demand may have been affected by weak consumer confidence.
Japan recorded a 0.8% decline, partly due to weather-related flight disruptions during part of the September holiday period.
By contrast, domestic demand rose 4.5% in Australia, 3.1% in China and 2% in Brazil.
IATA expects uneven capacity growth to continue
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist, said the 0.5% decline in global demand in September reflects continued weakness in the Middle East and North America.
She noted that the results were an improvement on August 2026, with most international markets returning to growth, adding that these trends have recurred through much of the year amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices.
She expects global scheduled capacity to keep exceeding 2025 levels in October and November 2026, but with weak growth rates that vary widely between regions.
IATA noted that all figures are provisional, covering the data available at the time of publication plus estimates for missing data, and that historical figures may be revised.
